Dominos Falling

13 March 2020

Since writing yesterday a great many things have happened. All kindergarten to grade 12 schools in my state are suspended/closed by our governor’s order until about the second week in April.  The NCAA and all the college conferences that had not already completed their tournaments have cancelled all their basketball for the year.  All major sport’s leagues have either cancelled their seasons, suspended them or delayed them. Travel to and from Europe is basically noneixstant with major airlines suspending routes.  Concert tours have been rescheduled for the fall. The stock market has gyrated wildly.  Colleges are now in a mode for teleconference classes only. And last, but not least, Costco is out of toilet paper.

Online conversations about the situation have turned more nuanced.  The pragmatic issues of the hows and the whys of social distancing are being discussed. On forums like Facebook people seem more focused on what needs to be done, how do we do this appropriately and the like.  The vitriol about how the Democratic Party is overblowing this and the Republican party isn’t taking the pandemic seriously enough has been replaced with the pragmatism. Personally I think this has be born out of the decision by scientific voices to take charge of the national conversation.

In our home one son is conducting his work via a VPN and a fancy new headset.  He is seriously isolating himself in the basement with a fast internet connection and not coming up except for lunch.  The other son has been told his spring break will be extended two days.  He has received notices from his two instructors that those classes will no longer meet in person but will be conducted electronically.  With everyone home the cat is losing it.

My guess is that the world around us is going to be a great deal different for the next two months.  My other guess is that the world around us is going to be very different long after those two months.  

If I were a richer person I would invest heavily in Polycom and Zoom and both manufacturers of HD videoconferencing equipment and software.  I think universities, once the shift has been made to online classes will stick with a great proportion of those classes remaining online going forward.  Face to face meetings and the travel involved will be much less common in business.  I think airline business travel will be down for a long, long time and may never recover completely.  Airlines that go the extra mile to ensure a diminution of the risk of exposure to contagions on their flights will probably prosper. Grocery delivery services guaranteeing that all items handled will have been selected, packed and delivered by persons wearing protective gear will gain a major toehold in local communities. Lower cost at store pick up sites will potentially flourish if the same promises about sanitary handling of products are made.

The above are just my guesses.  I am not a futurist.  But I can tell you with each passing 24 hours life in this world changes and changes again.